Méthode Alphier pour déterminer les bas de marché

J'ai trouvé ceci sur boursorama et remercie beaver pour le document: il s'agit d'une méthode assez simple pour anticiper les bas de marché

http://www.boursorama.com/forum/message.phtml?page=1&id_message=350167827

De e.beaver (e.beaver) 11:51 31/08/06
J'y suis --> méthode Alphier
Cela vient d'un édito de R Russel (Gourou de la Dow theory) que je copie sans plus de précaution:
Les Buy Signals

Citation :

Back in the '70s I corresponded with a brilliant analyst named James Alphier. James worked on a market method which he called "prolonged liquidation." Alphier's work is pretty much forgotten today, but he discovered a system for identifying major market bottoms. This is how Alphier's method works. Each week count how many days the S&P closed up and how many days it closed down. If there is a day that the index is exactly unchanged, give that day the sign of the previous day. Forget about holidays or any day in which the market is closed. Each week go back over the past 14 weeks and count how many total days are up and how many are down. If, in the past 14 weeks there are at least 17 more down days than up days, you have a major bottom and a buy signal.